NOAA's Wednesday 4am (eastern) update noted that Tropical Storm Dean had not increased wind speed and had stayed on its 18 miles per hour track towards the eastern Caribbean. 

But the latest update shows that in the last 6 hours Dean has intensified to 60 miles per hour wind speeds and has picked up speed to 20 miles per hour.  

Dean will likely become a hurricane (with 74 mph winds or higher) around Thursday afternoon and will approach the eastern Caribbean islands by Friday morning.  It will be a category 4 or 3 hurricane by then.

The Path: 

NOAA's computer model shows Dean's track remains the same since yesterday's update.  The storm will likely travel between St. Lucia and Martinique but could give either island a direct hit.  It will then travel through the middle of the Caribbean sea, and head for Jamaica.  

That's good news for most of the Caribbean - the northeast islands (Virgin Islands, St. Barts, St. Martin, Nevis, St. Kitts, Antigua, etc) will all be fairly safe.

It's also better news for Puerto Rico and Hispanola (Dominican Republic and Haiti).  It looks like these islands will be spared. 

However, Jamaica could be in bad shape.  As the Hurricane travels over that part of the Caribbean, it will be over water the whole time and gather strength. The water temps are above 85 degrees F right now - great for swimming but also for building powerful hurricanes.

After Jamaica, Cuba could be next and then southern Florida.  If it follows Tropical Storm Erin, it could head towards Texas. TheStormTrack.com has some better computer models for Dean's storm track.  Check out their storm path charts here. 

Updates: 

As always, stay tuned to Caribbean Travel News or visit NOAA directly for up-to-date hurricane Dean news.  NOAA's next update will be at 5pm AST (4pm eastern).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/